The 2025 consumer doesn’t intend to spend less — they intend to spend smarter. More rational, more demanding, and more cautious, they expect brands to act proactively rather than hide behind economic uncertainty.This week, President Donald Trump announced a series of significant trade tariffs: a 10% tax on all imports, with specific increases of 20% on products from the European Union and 34% on Chinese goods.

In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the measures a “blow to the global economy” and warned that the consequences “will be devastating for millions of people.”

The direct impact of these tariffs is clear: the National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that American consumers could lose up to $78 billion in annual purchasing power due to the increased costs.

Additionally, the NRF forecasts slower retail growth in the U.S. for 2025 — an estimated increase of just 2.7% to 3.7%, totaling between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion.
That’s down from the 3.6% recorded in 2024, reflecting reduced consumer confidence amid persistent inflation and tariff concerns.

At NRF 2025, one key insight stood out:
we are entering a world that is more expensive, slower — and more distrustful.

We are living in what experts call a permacrisis or polycrisis — terms used to describe the ongoing overlap of multiple global crises, from economic and political turbulence to climate emergencies and public health issues.

This convergence creates a prolonged state of uncertainty, where waiting for “calm” may be in vain. As historian Adam Tooze points out, the interaction of distinct crises often produces a greater collective impact than the sum of their individual parts.

In this context, inaction isn’t just a missed opportunity — it’s a serious risk.
Companies that wait for stability before acting may be overtaken by competitors with agile, responsive strategies.

Brands that recognize and proactively respond to the complexity of the permacrisis — offering relevant solutions and showing real empathy — will be better positioned to build trust and loyalty with today’s cautious consumers.

So the key question is:

Will you keep waiting for a “return to normal” that may never come — or will you take the lead, adapt, and thrive in this new era of constant challenges?

If it make you think, make it happen!
Caio Camargo